After 5 days (for individuals who were fully vaccinated more than 4 months before the date of contact) or 10 days (for unvaccinated individuals), a PCR test was performed and in the case of a negative result their quarantine was ended. Household members were tested and quarantined at home.
During the study period (from January 1st to January 31st, 2022), both antigenic positive tests and PCR tests were considered for COVID-19 diagnosis. Identified COVID-19 cases occurring in the province were confirmed via a Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) assay, reported in real time to the public health service of the Reggio Emilia local health authority, and isolated at home until either a negative PCR test result or 21 days were elapsed. To mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, contact tracing activities were carried out in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout the duration of the pandemic. Finally, the generation time is largely used in scientific research (including mathematical modeling), for applications such as evaluating the effectiveness of interventions, understanding epidemiological dynamics, reconstructing transmission chains. Biased estimates of the generation time also impact on the accuracy of the estimate of the net reproduction number, which is a key quantity for epidemiological surveillance, often used also as a parameter for deciding interventions. For example, if quarantine and isolation mandates are based on the generation time (as a proxy of infectiousness over time), an underestimation of this parameter would imply an early release of individuals when they still have a high probability to infect others, resulting in a reduced effectiveness of the intervention on the other hand, an overestimation would imply an unnecessarily lengthy limitation of individual freedoms and increased absenteeism from school and workplaces, with impacts on the economy and the society. The generation time is an important parameter for monitoring and modeling infectious diseases.
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However, whether the reduction in incubation periods and observed serial intervals reflects a reduction of the generation time, i.e., the time that elapses between the infection episode of an infector and of its infectee, is still to be determined. In the attempt to contain the negative effect of high simultaneous absenteeism on the economy. This estimate was obtained under very strict control measures (population-wide screenings and quarantine imposed to both contacts and contacts of contacts) that are known to reduce the realized generation time. We also found one preprint analyzing 43 infector-infectee pairs from contact tracing data in Hong Kong that estimated a mean realized generation time of 2.38 days (95% confidence interval 2.01-2.80).
Both studies suggest a significant reduction in the mean generation time of Omicron, estimated at values ranging between 50% and 80% the generation time of Delta.
We identified two preprints attempting to infer the generation time of Omicron from the trajectories of variant frequencies at the population level in Denmark and the growth rates of Omicron and Delta in the United Kingdom, respectively. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, and medRxiv for manuscripts in English from database inception to May 4, 2022, with the query (“COVID-19” OR “SARS-CoV-2”) AND (“generation time” OR “generation interval”) AND (“Omicron” OR “B.1.529”).
The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific.The Lancet Regional Health – Southeast Asia.The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology.
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